Temporal Variation and Persistence of Methane Emissions from Shallow Water Oil and Gas Production in the Gulf of Mexico.

Methane emissions from the oil and gas supply chain can be intermittent, posing challenges for monitoring and mitigation efforts. This study examines shallow water facilities in the US Gulf of Mexico with repeat atmospheric observations to evaluate temporal variation in site-specific methane emissions. We combine new and previous observations to develop a longitudinal study, spanning from days to months to almost five years, evaluating the emissions behavior of sites over time. We also define and determine the chance of subsequent detection (CSD): the likelihood that an emitting site will be observed emitting again. The average emitting central hub in the Gulf has a 74% CSD at any time interval. Eight facilities contribute 50% of total emissions and are over 80% persistent with a 96% CSD above 100 kg/h and 46% persistent with a 42% CSD above 1000 kg/h, indicating that large emissions are persistent at certain sites. Forward-looking infrared (FLIR) footage shows many of these sites exhibiting cold venting. This suggests that for offshore, a low sampling frequency over large spatial coverage can capture typical site emissions behavior and identify targets for mitigation. We further demonstrate the preliminary use of space-based observations to monitor offshore emissions over time.

In Situ Sampling of NOx Emissions from United States Natural Gas Flares Reveals Heavy-Tail Emission Characteristic.

Natural gas flaring is a common practice employed in many United States (U.S.) oil and gas regions to dispose of gas associated with oil production. Combustion of predominantly hydrocarbon gas results in the production of nitrogen oxides (NOx). Here, we present a large field data set of in situ sampling of real world flares, quantifying flaring NOx production in major U.S. oil production regions: the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Permian. We find that a single emission factor does not capture the range of the observed NOx emission factors within these regions. For all three regions, the median emission factors fall within the range of four emission factors used by the Texas Commission for Environmental Quality. In the Bakken and Permian, the distribution of emission factors exhibits a heavy tail such that basin-average emission factors are 2-3 times larger than the value employed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Extrapolation to basin scale emissions using auxiliary satellite assessments of flare volumes indicates that NOx emissions from flares are skewed, with 20%-30% of the flares responsible for 80% of basin-wide flaring NOx emissions. Efforts to reduce flaring volume through alternative gas capture methods would have a larger impact on the NOx oil and gas budget than current inventories indicate.

Excess methane emissions from shallow water platforms elevate the carbon intensity of US Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production.

The Gulf of Mexico is the largest offshore fossil fuel production basin in the United States. Decisions on expanding production in the region legally depend on assessments of the climate impact of new growth. Here, we collect airborne observations and combine them with previous surveys and inventories to estimate the climate impact of current field operations. We evaluate all major on-site greenhouse gas emissions, carbon dioxide (CO2) from combustion, and methane from losses and venting. Using these findings, we estimate the climate impact per unit of energy of produced oil and gas (the carbon intensity). We find high methane emissions (0.60 Tg/y [0.41 to 0.81, 95% confidence interval]) exceeding inventories. This elevates the average CI of the basin to 5.3 g CO2e/MJ [4.1 to 6.7] (100-y horizon) over twice the inventories. The CI across the Gulf varies, with deep water production exhibiting a low CI dominated by combustion emissions (1.1 g CO2e/MJ), while shallow federal and state waters exhibit an extraordinarily high CI (16 and 43 g CO2e/MJ) primarily driven by methane emissions from central hub facilities (intermediaries for gathering and processing). This shows that production in shallow waters, as currently operated, has outsized climate impact. To mitigate these climate impacts, methane emissions in shallow waters must be addressed through efficient flaring instead of venting and repair, refurbishment, or abandonment of poorly maintained infrastructure. We demonstrate an approach to evaluate the CI of fossil fuel production using observations, considering all direct production emissions while allocating to all fossil products.

Inefficient and unlit natural gas flares both emit large quantities of methane.

Flaring is widely used by the fossil fuel industry to dispose of natural gas. Industry and governments generally assume that flares remain lit and destroy methane, the predominant component of natural gas, with 98% efficiency. Neither assumption, however, is based on real-world observations. We calculate flare efficiency using airborne sampling across three basins responsible for >80% of US flaring and combine these observations with unlit flare prevalence surveys. We find that both unlit flares and inefficient combustion contribute comparably to ineffective methane destruction, with flares effectively destroying only 91.1% (90.2, 91.8; 95% confidence interval) of methane. This represents a fivefold increase in methane emissions above present assumptions and constitutes 4 to 10% of total US oil and gas methane emissions, highlighting a previously underappreciated methane source and mitigation opportunity.

Airborne Assessment of Methane Emissions from Offshore Platforms in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.

Methane (CH4) emissions from oil and gas activities are large and poorly quantified, with onshore studies showing systematic inventory underestimates. We present aircraft measurements of CH4 emissions from offshore oil and gas platforms collected over the U.S. Gulf of Mexico in January 2018. Flights sampled individual facilities as well as regions of 5-70 facilities. We combine facility-level samples, production data, and inventory estimates to generate an aerial measurement-based inventory of CH4 emissions for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. We compare our inventory and the Environmental Protection Agency Greenhouse Gas Inventory (GHGI) with regional airborne estimates. The new inventory and regional airborne estimates are consistent with the GHGI in deep water but appear higher for shallow water. For the full U.S. Gulf of Mexico our inventory estimates total emissions of 0.53 Tg CH4/yr [0.40-0.71 Tg CH4/yr, 95% CI] and corresponds to a loss rate of 2.9% [2.2-3.8%] of natural gas production. Our estimate is a factor of 2 higher than the GHGI updated with 2018 platform counts. We attribute this disagreement to incomplete platform counts and emission factors that both underestimate emissions for shallow water platforms and do not account for disproportionately high emissions from large shallow water facilities.

Development of a Fuel-Based Oil and Gas Inventory of Nitrogen Oxides Emissions.

In this study, we develop an alternative Fuel-based Oil and Gas inventory (FOG) of nitrogen oxides (NO x) from oil and gas production using publicly available fuel use records and emission factors reported in the literature. FOG is compared with the Environmental Protection Agency's 2014 National Emissions Inventory (NEI) and with new top-down estimates of NO x emissions derived from aircraft and ground-based field measurement campaigns. Compared to our top-down estimates derived in four oil and gas basins (Uinta, UT, Haynesville, TX/LA, Marcellus, PA, and Fayetteville, AR), the NEI overestimates NO x by over a factor of 2 in three out of four basins, while FOG is generally consistent with atmospheric observations. Challenges in estimating oil and gas engine activity, rather than uncertainties in NO x emission factors, may explain gaps between the NEI and top-down emission estimates. Lastly, we find a consistent relationship between reactive odd nitrogen species (NO y) and ambient methane (CH4) across basins with different geological characteristics and in different stages of production. Future work could leverage this relationship as an additional constraint on CH4 emissions from oil and gas basins.